Real estate blockbuster data released,The implementation of these policies and measures will promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market in the next stage.
The property market is still undergoing deep adjustments.
On June 17, the National Bureau of Statistics released the basic situation of the national real estate market from January to May 2024. Various indicators of real estate investment, sales, and financing continued to decline.
On the investment side, from January to May, the national real estate development investment was 4.0632 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, and the decline was 0.3 percentage points larger than that from January to April. A simple calculation shows that the monthly growth rate of real estate development investment in May was -11%, a decline that was 0.5 percentage points larger than that in April.
On the sales side, from January to May, the sales area of newly built commercial buildings was 366.42 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.3%, and the decline was 0.1 percentage points larger than that from January to April; the sales volume of newly built commercial buildings was 3,566.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.9%, and the decline narrowed by 0.4 percentage points. Based on this calculation, from January to May, the national average sales price of commercial housing was 9,733 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1.4% month-on-month.
Judging from the single-month data in May, the sales area of commercial housing was 73.9 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7%, and the decline was 2.1 percentage points narrower than that in April; the sales volume of commercial housing was 759.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.4%, and the decline was narrower than that in April. narrower by 4.1 percentage points.
It can be seen that under the new round of policy stimulus since May, there have been some improvement signals at the market and sales level, especially in core cities, the effects of policies are emerging. According to data from the China Index Institute, in the first two weeks of June (May 27 to June 9), the average weekly transaction area of new homes in 50 key cities increased by 24% compared with May; the second-hand housing market remained highly active, with the second During this week (June 3rd to June 9th), the transaction volume of second-hand houses in 11 key cities increased year-on-year for three consecutive weeks, and the policies in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and other cities have obvious effects.
“Since mid-May, relevant departments and regions have further adjusted and optimized real estate policies, and my country’s real estate market has seen some positive changes. At present, my country’s real estate market is still in the process of adjustment.” Liu Aihua, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, said.
However, the return to double-digit real estate investment slowdown still conveys that companies lack confidence in the future of the property market, which directly affects their willingness to acquire land and start construction.
The data can prove it. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May, the area of housing construction by real estate companies decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, and the decline expanded by 0.8 percentage points; the area of newly started real estate construction fell by 24.2% year-on-year, and this indicator has fallen for 31 consecutive months; the area of completed housing decreased year-on-year 20.1%, of which the completed residential area decreased by 19.8%.
Real estate blockbuster data released
From the land acquisition data, from January to May, the total land acquisition by the top 100 companies was 314.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.7%, and the decline was further expanded from January to April. Looking at the top 10 real estate companies in key cities in terms of land acquisition amount, central and state-owned enterprises are still the main players.
“Currently, large leading private real estate companies are in danger. As one of the participants in destocking and stabilizing the market, it is particularly important to build confidence in real estate companies and the industry.” The Shanghai Federation of Industry and Commerce Real Estate Chamber of Commerce recently appealed through a public platform.
The Shanghai Federation of Industry and Commerce Real Estate Chamber of Commerce believes that according to the current development trend, the sales of the real estate industry may further decline by more than 10% in 2024, the land auction market will also decline by about 20%, and the growth rate of development investment will decline by 10% in 2023. , may continue to decline by more than 10% in 2024, and the risk of asset price decline is huge. It will be a “big test” year for the entire real estate industry. Market sales and the survival of real estate companies are on the edge of a cliff, endangering economic development and financial stability.
How is the financial pressure on real estate companies? Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to May, real estate companies had 4,257.1 billion yuan of funds in place, a year-on-year decrease of 24.3%, and the decline was 0.6 percentage points narrower than that from January to April. It can be seen that the financing side of real estate companies is still declining and has not achieved substantial improvement.
Looking at the sources of funds in place for real estate companies, personal mortgage loans, deposits and advances declined the most. Among them, domestic loans fell by 6.2% year-on-year, self-raised funds fell by 9.8% year-on-year, deposits and advances fell by 36.7% year-on-year, and personal mortgage loans fell by 6.2% year-on-year. down 40.2%.
According to data from the China Index Academy, from January to May, the total bond financing in the real estate industry was 230.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.7%. Among them, credit bond financing was 161.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%, accounting for 70.1%; the amount of overseas debt issuance was 2.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 77.7%, accounting for 1.1%; ABS financing was 66.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.5% , accounting for 28.8%.
Based on the pace of bond issuance by real estate companies in the first five months of this year, the total issuance of credit bonds by real estate companies in March was the highest this year; from April to May, the total issuance of credit bonds continued to decline month-on-month, with the issuance amount in May reaching nearly 1 lowest level in the year.
May financial statistics released by the central bank showed that at the end of May, the balance of broad money (M2) increased by 7% year-on-year, while M1 fell by 4.2% year-on-year. M1 growth has declined for the second consecutive month and is lower than expected. The M1 growth rate data is one of the indicators to measure social expectations and observe the degree of currency “activation”.
Real estate
According to market experts, multiple factors such as the “relocation” of corporate demand deposits, insufficient effective demand, the People’s Bank of China’s efforts to regulate the phenomenon of “manual interest supplements”, and “squeezing water” from financial data will all have an impact on the M1 growth rate.
The pressure to destock the property market continues to increase. At the end of May, the area of commercial housing for sale was 742.56 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%. Among them, the residential area for sale increased by 24.6% year-on-year.
On the same day, the National Bureau of Statistics also released economic data. In the first five months, my country’s economy has generally shown an upward trend.
In May, the added value of the national industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, but it was weaker than the 1% in April and weaker than the historical average growth rate of 0.6% in the same period. In May, the national service industry production index increased by 4.8% year-on-year, 1.3 percentage points faster than April; total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points faster than April.
From January to May, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 4% year-on-year, slower than the 4.2% from January to April; excluding real estate development investment, national fixed asset investment increased by 8.6%. Preventing real estate investment from declining too quickly is important for economic stabilization.
Liu Aihua said that judging from various factors in the next stage, although the external environment is complex and changeable, and the domestic economy is also facing some difficulties and challenges, the fundamentals of economic recovery and long-term improvement have not changed, and the economy is expected to continue to recover. situation. The State Council executive meeting pointed out that efforts should be made to promote the implementation of policies and measures that have been introduced and continue to study and reserve new policies and measures to destock and stabilize the market. The implementation of these policies and measures will promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market in the next stage.
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